Dried Apricots
Crop 2019 size is declared by the Dried Apricots Crop Detection Committee as 87,642 tons. But neighbour cities’ productions were not included to this season’s estimation. These three neighbour cities Baskil, Elbistan and Gürün produced about 15,000 tons of Dried Apricots in the average of the last 12 years. We can also say that total crop size of these neighbour cities is nearly 19% of Malatya Province crop size, which is about 16,000 tons according to the 2019 seasons estimation. So we can confidently add 15,000 tons to the Crop 2019 estimation to include the neighbor cities’ production.
We estimate Crop 2019 size as minimum 100,000 tons.
We believe that about 20.000 tons will be left over from 2018 Crop season. Yes, these remaining products are low quality, bad color and small sizes, but we must record this quantity because there will be demand for these products.
So Turkey will have minimum 120.000 tons supply during 2019 crop season. At this point we must also remind you that crop estimations are about 3,5% less than the actual consumptions.
Let's consider that we will have 120,000 tons of fruit in the approaching crop. This quantity is enough to cover international and domestic demands. But we can not call this as an over supply. We foresee that this quantity will create a delicate balance between supply and demand.
In general, we can say that this season quality is good. For sure there are hail damaged and speckled products but we believe that it won't difficult to find good quality raw material for us. It looks that fruit will be fleshy and heavy and this means big sizes will be more than small sizes. We think that industrial quality apricots will be short.
Weather is cool and rainy in apricot growing areas as it has been since March, so we can expect the new crop a few weeks later than usual.
Quality and quantity seem to be sufficient, Turkish lira is weak against foreign currencies so all looks perfect for a good season. But we predict that prices will not be as low as expected. In fact we believe that prices will be in a slow ascending trend during the whole season starting from the beginning, due to the following reasons
- All production costs, transportation costs, packing material costs are increased, even on foreign currency basis
- Financing costs are too high due to the interest rates
- Quality is good so we expect that raw material buying prices will not be that low, Farmers will be reluctant to sell their good quality produce at low prices.
- Quality is good so we can expect that consumption and demand will slightly increase
- It is mostly believed that it is a wonderful season for speculative actions and there will be plenty of speculators who do not have direct relation with the industry
- We will not have an excessive supply . In every season because of higher price expectations some of the products are never sold and these quantities are always kept in hands. If we consider the delicate supply and demand balance in Crop 2019, any unsold amount may create a sort of shortage.
- In quality and size wise we may have an imbalance in supply and demand. There are always some certain quality and size requirements and none of crops are that perfect to cover all types of demands. We estimate that in Crop 2019, industrial and small size supply will be short and this may push the prices upwards.
Our company has a very good supply network and has access to the best quality raw materials all the time. By the help of highly motivated professional labour force and state of the art machinery, we can produce highest quality at the best costs. Our latest technology Photo Separator designed for Dried Apricots sorting is already in operation. This new machine increased our efficiency and significantly decreases our costs in production.
We will be happy to assist you with our highest quality, competitively priced and safe products in Crop 2019 season too.
We are looking forward to hearing from you.